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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting |