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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-90 min | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingFlowDelivery | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationForecastingFlow |