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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-60 min | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingFlowDelivery | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | EstimationForecastingFlow |