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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper fishbone diagram with a measurable effect at the head and six labeled cause branches.
Operations
Fishbone Diagram
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When a problem has several possible contributing factors, the method sorts causes by cause areas. It prevents an initial hunch from blocking the view of other plausible drivers.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
5-20 min30-60 min15-45 min2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
3-202-81-83-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsFishbone Diagram, Cause Categories, Investigation BacklogPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesFault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
Root causeQualityOperations
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
RiskRoot causeSafety
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