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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMediumMedium
Timedifferent
5-20 min1-3 h1-5 Tage45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-203-8Nutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsFailure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response ActionsClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning DecisionAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
FailureResilienceRisk
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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