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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of Dual Track Agile with its method-specific working model.
Product Discovery
Dual-Track Agile
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream.Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
5-20 minLaufend, Wochen bis Monate30-90 min Setup, danach laufend45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-204-101-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsDiscovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte StoriesForecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
AgileDiscoveryDelivery
ForecastingFlowDelivery
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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