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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
A paper-based illustration representing Pirate Metrics (AARRR) with its core stages and visible working result.
Growth
Pirate Metrics AARRR
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.For products with complex usage paths, overall growth alone is too coarse to reveal bottlenecks. Pirate Metrics breaks the relationship with the product into consecutive stages and shows where the funnel actually leaks.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighMediumMedium
Timedifferent
5-20 min1-4 Wochen1-2 h Setup, laufend45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-201-62-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summaryAARRR funnel, Metric baseline, Experiment backlogAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
GrowthMetricsExperiments
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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