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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Growth Pirate Metrics AARRR |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Strategy Counter Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For products with complex usage paths, overall growth alone is too coarse to reveal bottlenecks. Pirate Metrics breaks the relationship with the product into consecutive stages and shows where the funnel actually leaks. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 h Setup, laufend | 1-5 Tage | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | AARRR funnel, Metric baseline, Experiment backlog | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Counter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | GrowthMetricsExperiments | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments |