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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Business Strategy Ansoff Matrix |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | The Ansoff Matrix organizes growth options by market and product relation. It helps weigh expansion, diversification, and adaptation cleanly against each other. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-5 Tage | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Ansoff Matrix, Growth Options, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | GrowthStrategyMarketPortfolio |