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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Strategy KPI Tree |  Product Strategy Counter Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When metrics across the organization drift apart, it arranges drivers and effects under one shared logic. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a KPI tree and owner list. | When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min | 90-180 min initial, dann laufend | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | KPI Tree, Owner List | Counter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | MetricsStrategyAlignmentMeasurement | MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments |