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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Strategy KPI Tree |  Product Strategy Counter Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When metrics across the organization drift apart, it arranges drivers and effects under one shared logic. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a KPI tree and owner list. | When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min | 90-180 min initial, dann laufend | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | KPI Tree, Owner List | Counter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | MetricsStrategyAlignmentMeasurement | MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments |