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| Criterion |  Operations Change Analysis |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 45-120 min | 5-20 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-6 | 3-20 | 1-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Change Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action List | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingFlowDelivery | RiskRoot causeSafety |