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Criterion
Paper illustration for Bottleneck Analysis.
Operations
Bottleneck Analysis
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
For a flow that backs up at one point, the method looks for the capacity limit with the greatest leverage. It explains why extra effort elsewhere barely improves throughput.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
1-3 h5-20 min45-90 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-83-202-82-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Bottleneck Map, Flow Metrics, Improvement Options, Follow-up MeasuresEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
FlowMeasurementConstraints
EstimationEffortRisk
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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