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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 20–45 min | 5-20 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group | 3-20 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions |
Tags1 shared | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | EstimationEffortRisk | FailureResilienceRisk |