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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A paper-based illustration representing Pirate Metrics (AARRR) with its core stages and visible working result.
Growth
Pirate Metrics AARRR
Paper illustration of Counter Metrics with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
Counter Metrics
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.For products with complex usage paths, overall growth alone is too coarse to reveal bottlenecks. Pirate Metrics breaks the relationship with the product into consecutive stages and shows where the funnel actually leaks.When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumLowLow
Timedifferent
45-60 min1-2 h Setup, laufend30-60 min1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
2-82-82-6Nutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingAARRR funnel, Metric baseline, Experiment backlogCounter Metric List, Guardrail DefinitionsInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note
Tags1 shared
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
GrowthMetricsExperiments
MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
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