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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A paper-based illustration representing North Star Metric with its core stages and visible working result.
Growth
North Star Metric
A paper-based illustration representing Pirate Metrics (AARRR) with its core stages and visible working result.
Growth
Pirate Metrics AARRR
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When product teams track many metrics, the view of the actual customer outcome easily gets lost. A North Star Metric bundles growth, usage, and value contribution into one signal that makes the system's direction visible.For products with complex usage paths, overall growth alone is too coarse to reveal bottlenecks. Pirate Metrics breaks the relationship with the product into consecutive stages and shows where the funnel actually leaks.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
45-60 min1-2 h1-2 h Setup, laufend45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
2-83-82-82-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingNorth Star metric, Input metric tree, Measurement cadenceAARRR funnel, Metric baseline, Experiment backlogAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
GrowthMetricsAlignmentRetention
GrowthMetricsExperiments
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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