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| Criterion |  Delivery Shape Up |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Shape Up helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow. It makes work boundaries and decisions explicit and captures results as pitches, bet-table decisions, and hill charts. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 6 Wochen Cycle + 2 Wochen Cool-Down | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 5-20 min | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 2-4 pro Pitch | 1-8 | 3-20 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Pitches, Bet-table decisions, Hill charts, Cooldown outcomes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | PlanningDeliveryAutonomy | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationForecastingFlow |