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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Strategy Counter Metrics |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Bottleneck Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a flow that backs up at one point, the method looks for the capacity limit with the greatest leverage. It explains why extra effort elsewhere barely improves throughput. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 30-60 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-6 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Counter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Bottleneck Map, Flow Metrics, Improvement Options, Follow-up Measures |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | FlowMeasurementConstraints |