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| Criterion |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 5-20 min | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 1-8 | 3-20 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | FailureResilienceRisk | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |