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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Stock and Flow Diagram |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A Stock and Flow Diagram shows how stocks, inflows, and outflows shape a system over time. It is especially suited when growth, delays, or capacity limits determine the dynamics. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 1-3 h | 15-45 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 2-8 | 1-8 | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Stock and Flow Model, Dynamics Notes, Simulation Hypotheses |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | DynamicsSimulationFeedbackSystems thinking |